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Market reacting very calm on better US rate risk


EURUSD Pair
EURUSD pulls back slightly after the better NFP data and driven the UST yield higher (10 years UST yield to 4 years high at 2.88%). US equity goes down more than 2.5% and started some risk off sentiment. Today Eurozone PMI and retail sales data as well as US data will have some intraday impact with support at 1.2410 and 1.2385 also with resistance at 1.2535. Still to prefer the buying on dips with tight stop strategy.

USDJPY Pair
USDJPY running up to 110.47 overnight before going lower after both US and Japan stocks goes down more than 2.5% with the investor long liquidation. After the yield surged up and expectations for more correction in stock market affects a better US NFP data. A more risk for US rate hikes up but the market reacts very calm. And today Kuroda’s continued no changes for QE and 2% inflation target are the global standard and have little impact for the market. Some of the YEN cross selling on risk off sentiment started and expects to be capping the topside of USDJPY. Today the US data and stock/bond market move will dominate the intraday action with support at 109.50-60 and 109.10-20 in resistance at 110.10-20 and 110.50 to still prefer in range trading with tight stop strategy.

GBPUSD Pair
GBPUSD stays around NYC stalling and this week’s BOE meeting is the key risk event for GBP. With earlier equity loss which driven some risk off sentiment that leads to more selling on GBPJPY and indirectly adding some pressure for GBP. Later UK and US PMI data, ISM Non-manufacturing and stock/bond market move will direct the intraday action with support at 1.4070-80 and resistance at 1.4150-60 still to prefer selling on rallies with tight stop strategy.

USDCHF Pair
USDCHF around in similar level from last Friday and the overall steady for EURCHF and EURUSD will still dominate the movement in short term. USD in rebound move but lack of further follow through, with stock market crashing down, driven some risk off sentiment and indirectly adding some pressure for the pair. Today the US PMI data, ISM non-manufacturing and stock/bond market move will have some intraday impact with support at 0.9250 and resistance at 0.9315-20 still preferring to sell on rallies with tight stop strategy.

EURJPY Pair
EURJPY pulls back further but still staying around from last Friday level despite on both US and Japan stocks goes down more than 2.5% which driven some risk off selling as well as profit taking on top. Today the US PMI data and stock/bond market move will have some intraday impact with support at 136.35 and resistance at 137.25 (NY Close), preferring still the in range trading with tight stop strategy.

EURGBP Pair
EURGBP around close at last Friday level (0.8820) in starting with tight move overall. Risk off sentiment have less impact for the cross but lower GBP cross will add some support for the pair in short term. Today Eurozone and UK PMI data, Eurozone retail sales and US data as well as stock/bond market move will direct the intraday action with support at 0.88 and resistance at 0.8880 still preferring to keep buying on dips with tight stop strategy..

Gold Bars
GOLD pulls back down to 1327.66 last Friday after a better NFP data as well as the USD rebound effect. But the sharply correction (DJI -665.75 or 2.54%) on US stock driven more risk off sentiment and supporting the GOLD recovery all the way over 1330. Today US PMI data, ISM non-manufacturing and stock/bond market move will direct the intraday action with support at 1330 and 1327.50, resistance at 1338 and 1345 still to prefer keeping buying dips with tight stop strategy.

Silver Bars
Silver goes down to 16.58 last Friday with the USD in rebound move and lower GOLD takes effect before the equity goes down sharply that driven more short coverings. And today the risk off sentiment further supports the Silver on lower side, also GOLD recovery and retracing USD will help the metal as well. Later the US data and stock/bond market move will have some intraday impact with support at 16.70 and resistance at 17.20-25 to still prefer buying on dips with tight stop strategy.


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