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Market to focus on trade war between US and China


USD in choppy tight range consolidation with market focusing on risk sentiment and on Trump announcement to impose 10% tariff for additional $200 Billion China goods with China also responded to retaliate with new US tariff driven the global stock to go lower. UST yield coming down (10 years yield down from 2.8711% to 2.8345%) and further flattening yield curve hints that market very worried for global economy slowing down with recession risk increasing if trade war happens. USDJPY and JPY cross unwinding and further lower will seem more likely on current situation.

EUR and GBP locked in tight range despite the weakening of Germany ZEW and lower UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production with trade deficit widening. Market remain to worry for Brexit and Theresa May political situation might capping topside on GBP and GBP cross despite both EUR and GBP in technical correction trend.

AUD / NZD / CAD goes lower as it worries for trade war and hurting those commodity currencies.

Today BOC meeting and market expecting hike rate 0.25% to 1.25% with less optimism for economy on current global trade tension situation. Besides, US PPI, wholesales inventories, BOE’s Carney speech and stock/bond market move as well as risk sentiment will direct the intraday action.


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