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The effects on EUR of today’s risk event ECB meeting


USD index downs to 3.66% for this month alone and the biggest decline percentage since 2015. The market’s response to US Treasury Secretary for weak USD is good for US but the helping trades comments as well as US Commerce Secretary hints more tariff measures coming in the future which reinforces more worries for global trades protectionism risks as well. And both are hurting USD and driven broad USD selling in hitting major year high in the process. USDJPY hits lower at 108.73, AUD goes over the top of 2017 at 0.8122 and NZD at 0.7391 a year high as well as USDCAD broke from 1.23 to 1.2294 low, all pointing to the market response in all sectors. The weak USD trend is confirmed and oversold technical as we might see some rebound risk but expected it to be shallow and shortlived in nature.

EUR further goes up to 1.2461 and GBP hitting high at 1.4330 after Brexit. Today’s ECB meeting is a key risk event and the market wildly expects ECB to keep the rate and policy stance unchanged and move the change to the next meeting in March. Draghi’s conference is also a key event as the market is watching whether ECB and Draghi’s response to the recent EUR sharp rising trend. With any verbal intervention, if no changes happens for Draghi and ECB then EUR upside risk will expect to accelerate or else will show some pullback in short term. But the bullish trend for EUR remains firmly intact.

US initial jobless claims, New Home Sales, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity index, any speech from Davos forum and stock/bond market move will direct the intraday action.


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